The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Senegal5
Iraq0
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
53%Crowd
39%Market
+14Divergence

+14 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd above market on both teams scoring, its clearest gap, and that read diverged from the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap39%53% Yes+14
2Who wins this match?75%68% Senegal-7
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?63%59% No-4
4Who leads at half-time?54%57% Senegal+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedSenegal 5–0 Iraq — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Senegal68%
Iraq20%
Draw12%
OutcomeSenegal
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Senegal57%
Draw24%
Iraq19%
OutcomeSenegal
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes53%
No47%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No59%
Yes41%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: SenegalConsensus
Mkt 75%Crowd 68%-7pp
Result: Senegal · 0.16
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: SenegalConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 57%+3pp
Result: Senegal · 0.28
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 53%+14pp
Result: No · 0.56
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 59%-4pp
Result: Yes · 0.70
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.16
Who leads at half-time0.28
Will both teams score0.56
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.70
Average0.42
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A controlled Senegal shutout: Senegal ahead at the break, Iraq kept off the scoresheet, and a tight, low-scoring affair through ninety minutes.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

An open, high-scoring Senegal win: both sides find the net, goals flow freely, and Senegal lead from the first half all the way through.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Senegal in front at half-time, Iraq grab a consolation, but the match stays tight on goals with the total falling short of three.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
118%206 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
214%166 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
310%118 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
48%98 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
56%69 voters
SenegalCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
64%48 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
5.0×
73%39 voters
SenegalCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
83%38 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.8×
93%36 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.0×
103%31 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 498 · 8%
3 / 4400 · 35%
2 / 4310 · 27%
1 / 4249 · 22%
0 / 4100 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.13 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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