All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
SenegalWon · Crowd had 68%5
IraqCrowd had 20%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Senegal won 5–0.

Senegal vs. Iraq 1.2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Yes
39%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Senegal68%
Iraq20%
Draw12%
OutcomeSenegal
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Senegal57%
Draw24%
Iraq19%
OutcomeSenegal
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes53%
No47%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No59%
Yes41%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: SenegalConsensus
Mkt 75%Crowd 68%-7pp
Result: Senegal · 0.16
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: SenegalConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 57%+3pp
Result: Senegal · 0.28
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 53%+14pp
Result: No · 0.56
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 59%-4pp
Result: Yes · 0.70
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.16
Who leads at half-time0.28
Will both teams score0.56
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.70
Average0.42
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A controlled Senegal shutout: Senegal ahead at the break, Iraq kept off the scoresheet, and a tight, low-scoring affair through ninety minutes.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

An open, high-scoring Senegal win: both sides find the net, goals flow freely, and Senegal lead from the first half all the way through.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Senegal in front at half-time, Iraq grab a consolation, but the match stays tight on goals with the total falling short of three.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
118%206 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
214%166 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
310%118 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
48%98 voters
SenegalCalled it!
SenegalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
56%69 voters
SenegalCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
64%48 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
5.0×
73%39 voters
SenegalCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
83%38 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.8×
93%36 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.0×
103%31 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 498 · 8%
3 / 4400 · 35%
2 / 4310 · 27%
1 / 4249 · 22%
0 / 4100 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 2.13 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.