All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Tigres UANLWon · Crowd had 51%1
PueblaCrowd had 29%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Tigres UANL won 1–0.

Tigres UANL vs Puebla 588 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points below the market's price on Tigres UANL, and the crowd had it.

51%Crowd on Tigres UANL
62%Market price
-11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters588World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tigres UANL ✓51%
Puebla29%
Tie20%
OutcomeTigres UANL
Voters588
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters588
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters588
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Tigres UANLConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 51%-11pp
Result: Tigres UANL · 0.36
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 52%+11pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 64%+8pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.36
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Tigres winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a goal-filled home performance.

Match resultTigres UANL
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters · came true

A tight, disciplined Tigres victory with defences on top, Puebla kept scoreless, and the game decided by a single moment of quality.

Match resultTigres UANL
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Tigres edging it in a cagey affair where both sides score but chances stay scarce and the final margin stays narrow.

Match resultTigres UANL
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 588 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%136 voters
Tigres UANLCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
212%70 voters
Tigres UANLCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
311%67 voters
Tigres UANLCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
410%59 voters
PueblaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
58%45 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
67%44 voters
PueblaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
77%41 voters
PueblaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
86%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%26 voters
Tigres UANLCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (588 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 370 · 12%
2 / 3173 · 29%
1 / 3256 · 44%
0 / 389 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=588). Average 1.38 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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