All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Dallas CowboysCrowd's pick · 67%31
Baltimore RavensWon · Crowd had 33%34
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 52.5. Baltimore Ravens won 31–34.

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 51 points above the market's price on Under 52.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Under 52.5
49%Market price
+51Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Baltimore win by 4 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 52.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Dallas Cowboys67%
Baltimore Ravens ✓33%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens
Voters3
ReadMarket
2Will Baltimore win by 4 or more?
No ✓100%
Yes0%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 52.5 points?
Under 52.5100%
Over 52.5 ✓0%
OutcomeOver 52.5
Voters3
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Baltimore wins 1st Half ✓67%
Dallas wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeBaltimore wins 1st Half
Voters3
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Dallas CowboysMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 67%+29pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens · 0.90
: Deep
Will Baltimore win by 4 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 100%+48pp
Result: No · 0.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 52.5 points: Under 52.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 100%+51pp
Result: Over 52.5 · 2.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Baltimore wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: Baltimore wins 1st Half · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Baltimore win by 4 or more0.00
Will there be more than 52.5 points2.00
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.78
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

Baltimore controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, wins close without covering a big spread, in a low-scoring, grinding contest.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Baltimore sets the early tone and leads at half, but Dallas claws back to steal a tight, low-scoring win that keeps the final margin narrow.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Baltimore win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

Dallas seizes the lead early, holds it through a defensive, low-scoring game, and converts a narrow half-time cushion into a close final victory.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Baltimore win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 52.5 points?Under 52.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Baltimore win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 52.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 52.5Got it wrong
Baltimore wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.5×
233%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 52.5Got it wrong
Baltimore wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.7×
333%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 52.5Got it wrong
Dallas wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.