All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Upset
Jacksonville JaguarsCrowd's pick · 75%31
Houston TexansWon · Crowd had 25%34
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Houston Texans won 31–34.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on No
50%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
Jacksonville win by 3…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 42.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Jacksonville Jaguars75%
Houston Texans ✓25%
OutcomeHouston Texans
Voters4
ReadUpset
2Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?
No ✓75%
Yes25%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Under 42.575%
Over 42.5 ✓25%
OutcomeOver 42.5
Voters4
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Jacksonville50%
Houston ✓25%
Tie25%
OutcomeHouston
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Jacksonville JaguarsUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 75%+18pp
Result: Houston Texans · 1.13
: Deep
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 75%+25pp
Result: No · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Under 42.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 75%+24pp
Result: Over 42.5 · 1.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: JacksonvilleUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 50%-5pp
Result: Houston · 0.88
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.13
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more0.13
Will there be more than 42.5 points1.13
Who leads at half-time0.88
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A tight, defensive contest where Houston controls the half and grinds out a win without Jacksonville ever threatening a comfortable margin.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Jacksonville leads at the break and holds on for a narrow, low-scoring win, never pulling clear enough to cover the spread.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Jacksonville
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A locked, attritional first half gives way to a slim Jacksonville victory, defences dominant throughout and the margin staying tight to the end.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Jacksonville win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Houston TexansCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Got it wrong
HoustonCalled it!
7.1×
225%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Got it wrong
JacksonvilleGot it wrong
1.2×
325%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
2.4×
425%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Called it!
JacksonvilleGot it wrong
10.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.63How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call7.1×The most-backed combination drew 7.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-28. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 43 · 75%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.