All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Pittsburgh SteelersWon · Crowd had 50%34
Indianapolis ColtsCrowd had 50%22
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Pittsburgh Steelers won 34–22.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Pittsburgh win by 3 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 44.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Pittsburgh Steelers ✓50%
Indianapolis Colts50%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.5 ✓50%
Under 44.550%
OutcomeOver 44.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Pittsburgh ✓75%
Tie25%
Indianapolis0%
OutcomePittsburgh
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Pittsburgh SteelersConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 50%-8pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers · 0.50
: Deep
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 75%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Crowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 50%0pp
Result: Over 44.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PittsburghConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 75%+19pp
Result: Pittsburgh · 0.13
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more0.13
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.13
Average0.31
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A low-scoring Colts upset vision: Indianapolis steals the win while Pittsburgh leads at the break but fails to cover, and both offences stay quiet.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A tight, defensive grind with neither side ahead at half, Pittsburgh covering despite losing outright, and the scoreboard staying well below the total.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A high-scoring Pittsburgh win that stays closer than expected, with both teams putting up points and the Steelers ahead at the break but not pulling clear.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Pittsburgh win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
PittsburghCalled it!
1.8×
225%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
5.3×
325%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
PittsburghCalled it!
5.3×
425%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 44.5Called it!
PittsburghCalled it!
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.63How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 25%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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