All resolved pollsResolved · 15 AUG 2026Upset
FluminenseWon · Crowd had 43%3
PalmeirasCrowd's pick · 48%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Fluminense won 3–2.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras: three calls on one match 275 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

77%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
After ninety minutes,…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
there three or more…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters275World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1After ninety minutes, what is the result?
Palmeiras48%
Fluminense43%
Tie9%
OutcomeFluminense
Voters275
ReadUpset
2Do both teams score?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters275
ReadCrowd
3Are there three or more goals?
Two or fewer64%
Three or more36%
OutcomeThree or more
Voters275
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

After ninety minutes, what is the result: PalmeirasUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 48%+12pp
Result: Fluminense · 0.56
: Deep
Do both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 77%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Thin
Are there three or more goals: Two or fewerUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 64%+5pp
Result: Three or more · 0.82
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
After ninety minutes, what is the result0.56
Do both teams score0.11
Are there three or more goals0.82
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

A tight, scrappy Fluminense home win where both sides find the net but the goals stay few, a low-scoring upset vision.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Fluminense
Do both teams score?Yes
Are there three or more goals?Two or fewer
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A lively, open contest with Palmeiras taking the points in a game where both teams score and goals flow freely.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Palmeiras
Do both teams score?Yes
Are there three or more goals?Three or more
Scenario 3 · 18% of voters

Palmeiras edging a tight, competitive match where both sides score but the game stays contained and close.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Palmeiras
Do both teams score?Yes
Are there three or more goals?Two or fewer
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 275 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosAfter ninety minutes, what is the result?Do both teams score?Are there three or more goals?
119%53 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
0.9×
219%51 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Three or moreCalled it!
1.4×
318%49 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
0.8×
413%37 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Three or moreCalled it!
1.1×
510%28 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.4×
68%23 voters
FluminenseCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.3×
77%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.5×
81%4 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Three or moreCalled it!
0.4×
91%4 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.1×
101%4 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Three or moreCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (275 voters · top 10 of 11 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call0.9×The most-backed combination drew 0.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 337 · 13%
2 / 3112 · 41%
1 / 394 · 34%
0 / 332 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=275). Average 1.56 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.