All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Carolina PanthersCrowd had 35%37
Chicago BearsWon · Crowd had 65%59
The verdict

The crowd backed Chicago Bears -3.5. Chicago Bears won 37–59.

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears 558 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Chicago Bears -3.5, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Chicago Bears -3.5
45%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Against the spread, who…Crowd beat the market
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters558World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Chicago Bears ✓65%
Carolina Panthers35%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters558
ReadConsensus
2Against the spread, who covers?
Chicago Bears -3.5 ✓58%
Carolina Panthers +3.542%
OutcomeChicago Bears -3.5
Voters558
ReadCrowd
3How many total points are scored?
Over 46.5 ✓53%
Under 46.547%
OutcomeOver 46.5
Voters558
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago Bears ✓52%
Carolina Panthers30%
Tie18%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters558
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Chicago BearsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 65%+4pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.24
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Chicago Bears -3.5Crowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 58%+13pp
Result: Chicago Bears -3.5 · 0.35
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 46.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 53%+1pp
Result: Over 46.5 · 0.44
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Chicago BearsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 52%-1pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.35
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.24
Against the spread, who covers0.35
How many total points are scored0.44
Who leads at half-time0.35
Average0.35
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters · came true

A Bears-dominant, high-scoring vision: Chicago in control from the first half, pulling clear by more than the spread in a game that runs well past the total.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Against the spread, who covers?Chicago Bears -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago Bears
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Bears in command but the scoring stays contained: Chicago leads at the break, covers comfortably, and both defences keep the total below the line.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Against the spread, who covers?Chicago Bears -3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago Bears
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A Panthers upset vision: Carolina seizes the half-time lead in an open, high-scoring game and stays within striking distance to cover as underdogs.

Who wins?Carolina Panthers
Against the spread, who covers?Carolina Panthers +3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Carolina Panthers
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 558 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
118%103 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Chicago Bears -3.5Called it!
Over 46.5Called it!
Chicago BearsCalled it!
1.8×
214%80 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Chicago Bears -3.5Called it!
Under 46.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsCalled it!
1.6×
39%52 voters
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 46.5Called it!
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
4.0×
46%32 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 46.5Called it!
Chicago BearsCalled it!
0.8×
54%23 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Chicago Bears -3.5Called it!
Under 46.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
64%23 voters
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Got it wrong
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
2.0×
74%21 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 46.5Called it!
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
0.9×
83%19 voters
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsCalled it!
0.9×
93%18 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Carolina Panthers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 46.5Got it wrong
Chicago BearsCalled it!
0.5×
103%18 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
Chicago Bears -3.5Called it!
Under 46.5Got it wrong
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (558 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4103 · 18%
3 / 4153 · 27%
2 / 4131 · 23%
1 / 4135 · 24%
0 / 436 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=558). Average 2.27 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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