The matchResolvedUpset
France4
England6
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
51%Crowd
67%Market
-16Divergence

-16 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well below the market on three-or-more goals, the widest gap across all four questions.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Biggest gap67%51% Yes-16
2Will both teams score in regulation time?69%75% Yes+6
3Who wins this match?63%60% France advances-3
4Who leads at half-time?40%42% France wins 1st Half+2
How it landed:UpsetFrance 4–6 England — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances60%
England advances40%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half42%
England wins 1st Half29%
Tie 1st Half29%
OutcomeEngland wins 1st Half
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 60%-3pp
Result: England advances · 0.72
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 75%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 51%-16pp
Result: Yes · 0.48
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 42%+2pp
Result: England wins 1st Half · 0.76
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.72
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.48
Who leads at half-time0.76
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

France in control from the first whistle, both sides finding the net in a free-scoring contest that clears the goals bar with room to spare.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

France leads at the break and sees the match out, both teams scoring but the game staying tight enough to keep the total below three goals.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

England seizes the initiative early, both sides contributing to a high-scoring affair as England hold the lead through the interval and beyond.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
35% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
117%203 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
211%128 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
38%92 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.7×
47%85 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.7×
57%80 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
67%78 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
74%50 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
84%44 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.6×
94%43 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
103%41 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 492 · 8%
3 / 4233 · 19%
2 / 4485 · 40%
1 / 4313 · 26%
0 / 477 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.96 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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