All resolved pollsResolved · 20 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
CD Guadalajara1
NecaxaCrowd had 23%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. CD Guadalajara won 1–0.

Guadalajara vs Necaxa 563 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters563World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Guadalajara ✓58%
Necaxa23%
Tie19%
OutcomeGuadalajara
Voters563
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓54%
Over 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters563
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters563
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GuadalajaraConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 58%-11pp
Result: Guadalajara · 0.27
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 54%+4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 63%+13pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.27
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.79
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A lively Guadalajara victory with both sides finding the net and the game opening up into a multi-goal affair, the crowd's most popular combined vision.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters · came true

Guadalajara grind out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Necaxa off the scoresheet in a compact, defensively solid contest.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Guadalajara win a close, contained match where both sides manage a goal but the scoring stays modest and the game never fully opens up.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 563 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%137 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
216%90 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
313%72 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
49%52 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
59%49 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
66%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
75%29 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
85%29 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
95%28 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
103%18 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (563 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 390 · 16%
2 / 3166 · 29%
1 / 3238 · 42%
0 / 369 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=563). Average 1.49 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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