All resolved pollsResolved · 18 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Bayern MunichWon · Crowd had 81%7
Union BerlinCrowd had 13%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Bayern Munich won 7–0.

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin 626 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
87%Market price
-13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters626World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bayern Munich ✓81%
Union Berlin13%
Tie6%
OutcomeBayern Munich
Voters626
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓74%
Under 2.5 goals26%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters626
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes57%
No ✓43%
OutcomeNo
Voters626
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Bayern MunichConsensus
Mkt 90%Crowd 81%-9pp
Result: Bayern Munich · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 74%-13pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.14
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: No · 0.65
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.06
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.14
Will both teams score0.65
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

A comfortable Bayern win in an open, end-to-end game where Union Berlin nicked at least one goal of their own in a lively, high-scoring contest.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 26% of voters · came true

Bayern dominant and clinical, goals flowing freely but all in one direction, with Union Berlin shut out completely in a one-sided rout.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tight, low-event affair where Bayern grind out a narrow win, Union Berlin kept scoreless, and the game never opens up into a free-scoring encounter.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 626 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
137%233 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
226%163 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
310%62 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
48%50 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
55%33 voters
Union BerlinGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
63%17 voters
Union BerlinGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
72%15 voters
Union BerlinGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
82%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
92%14 voters
Union BerlinGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (626 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3163 · 26%
2 / 3316 · 50%
1 / 3118 · 19%
0 / 329 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=626). Average 1.98 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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