VoxPop top scenarios
32% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd beat the market
Australia2
Turkey0
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins?
44%Crowd
17%Market
+27Divergence
+27 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Australia on who wins.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins?Biggest gap17%44% Australia+27
2Will both teams score?49%68% Yes+19
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?53%51% No-2
4Who leads at half-time?40%38% Turkiye-2
Crowd beat the marketAustralia 2–0 Turkey — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeAustralia
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeAustralia
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.51
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.48
Will both teams score0.92
Who leads at half-time0.62
Average0.63
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
113%153 voters
AustraliaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaCalled it!
2.4×
212%145 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
TurkiyeGot it wrong
2.3×
38%90 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TurkiyeGot it wrong
1.4×
47%89 voters
AustraliaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaCalled it!
1.4×
56%72 voters
AustraliaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AustraliaCalled it!
2.3×
65%62 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
TurkiyeGot it wrong
2.0×
74%52 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
TurkiyeGot it wrong
1.7×
84%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
2.6×
93%38 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
0.8×
103%37 voters
AustraliaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
TieGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-19. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.62 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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