All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
EnglandCrowd had 28%2
SpainWon · Crowd had 58%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Spain won 2–3.

England vs Spain 612 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

77%Crowd on Yes
58%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters612World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Spain ✓58%
England28%
Tie14%
OutcomeSpain
Voters612
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters612
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters612
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SpainConsensus
Mkt 41%Crowd 58%+17pp
Result: Spain · 0.27
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 60%+8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 77%+19pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.27
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.32
Will both teams score0.11
Average0.23
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

Spain controlling but both sides trading goals in an open, end-to-end final. The crowd's dominant shared vision, clustering well above what independent picks would suggest.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

England turning the match around in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest where neither side kept a clean sheet. A lively but minority read within the crowd.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Spain edging a tight, low-scoring final where England still find the net but cannot prevent a Spanish victory.

Match resultSpain
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 612 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%204 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%81 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
311%69 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%51 voters
SpainCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
58%49 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
66%37 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
75%31 voters
SpainCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
85%30 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
102%14 voters
EnglandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (612 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3204 · 33%
2 / 3211 · 34%
1 / 3157 · 26%
0 / 340 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=612). Average 1.95 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.