All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Real MadridWon · Crowd had 87%1
VillarrealCrowd had 7%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Real Madrid won 1–0.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Real Madrid, and the crowd had it.

87%Crowd on Real Madrid
73%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario48%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid ✓87%
Villarreal7%
Tie6%
OutcomeReal Madrid
Voters553
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals70%
Under 2.5 goals ✓30%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters553
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters553
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real MadridConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 87%+14pp
Result: Real Madrid · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 74%Crowd 70%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.98
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 69%+6pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.03
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.98
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 48% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Real Madrid in control of an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net in a free-scoring affair.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A secondary cluster saw Real Madrid winning with goals flying in, but kept clean sheet, with Villarreal shut out despite the high-scoring tempo.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A quieter vision: Real Madrid grinding out a tight win in a low-event game, yet Villarreal still managing to get on the scoresheet.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
76% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
148%266 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
216%86 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
312%66 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%63 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
53%19 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
62%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
72%11 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
3.1×
82%9 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
91%8 voters
VillarrealGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
101%6 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 363 · 11%
2 / 3169 · 31%
1 / 3293 · 53%
0 / 328 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.48 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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