All resolved pollsResolved · 2 NOV 2026Crowd & market agreed
SassuoloCrowd had 20%2
FiorentinaWon · Crowd had 64%4
The verdict

The crowd called it — Fiorentina won 2–4.

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 551 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Fiorentina, and the crowd had it.

64%Crowd on Fiorentina
39%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters551World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fiorentina ✓64%
Sassuolo20%
Tie15%
OutcomeFiorentina
Voters551
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters551
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters551
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FiorentinaConsensus
Mkt 39%Crowd 64%+25pp
Result: Fiorentina · 0.19
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 50%+11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 66%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.19
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.31
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters · came true

A Fiorentina win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely past the 2.5 mark.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Fiorentina grind out a controlled, tight win, keeping the scoring low and shutting out Sassuolo entirely.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Fiorentina win a compact, low-scoring affair where Sassuolo manage a consolation but the game stays under the goals line.

Match resultFiorentina
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 551 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%147 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%93 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
315%85 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%56 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
55%29 voters
FiorentinaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
65%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
75%26 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
85%25 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
95%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
104%21 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (551 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3147 · 27%
2 / 3195 · 35%
1 / 3162 · 29%
0 / 347 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=551). Average 1.8 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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