All resolved pollsResolved · 1 OCT 2026Upset
WalesWon · Crowd had 16%2
NorwayCrowd's pick · 70%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Wales won 2–1.

Wales vs Norway 600 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
57%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters600World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Norway70%
Wales ✓16%
Tie14%
OutcomeWales
Voters600
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters600
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters600
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NorwayUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 70%+7pp
Result: Wales · 1.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 57%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 66%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.22
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.37
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters

A high-tempo Norway win, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest. The crowd's dominant vision, pulling far more than its statistical share.

Match resultNorway
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Norway grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping Wales off the scoresheet in a low-event, disciplined affair. A compact minority view with notable internal coherence.

Match resultNorway
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A narrow Norway victory in a close, scrappy match where both teams score but chances stay scarce. The crowd held this combination well below what independent answers would predict.

Match resultNorway
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 600 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%213 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
215%88 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
311%68 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
49%53 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
56%37 voters
WalesCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
65%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
74%25 voters
WalesCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
104%22 voters
WalesCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (600 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 337 · 6%
2 / 3272 · 45%
1 / 3178 · 30%
0 / 3113 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=600). Average 1.39 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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