All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Upset
GermanyCrowd's pick · 83%0
GreeceWon · Crowd had 11%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Germany. Greece won 0–1.

Germany vs Greece 612 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Germany, and it went the other way.

83%Crowd on Germany
74%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters612World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Germany83%
Greece ✓11%
Tie6%
OutcomeGreece
Voters612
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals69%
Under 2.5 goals ✓31%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters612
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes60%
No ✓40%
OutcomeNo
Voters612
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GermanyUpset
Mkt 74%Crowd 83%+9pp
Result: Greece · 1.48
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 69%+6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.95
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 60%+9pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.48
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.95
Will both teams score0.72
Average1.05
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a free-flowing Germany win with goals at both ends, the most natural home-victory script and the scenario that drew the largest share of the joint map.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 23% of voters

A Germany win with goals flying in but only one side finding the net, a one-sided attacking display that still expected a busy scoreline without a Greek reply.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter Germany victory where both teams contributed to the scoresheet but the game stayed contained, the crowd's least-favoured path to a home win.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 612 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
137%228 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
223%143 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
311%70 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%67 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
55%28 voters
GreeceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
63%18 voters
GreeceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
72%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.8×
82%12 voters
GreeceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
92%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (612 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 312 · 2%
2 / 3105 · 17%
1 / 3256 · 42%
0 / 3239 · 39%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=612). Average 0.82 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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