All resolved pollsResolved · 25 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
TunisiaCrowd had 8%1
NetherlandsWon · Crowd had 85%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Netherlands won 1–3.

Tunisia vs. Netherlands 942 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Yes
37%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters942World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Netherlands85%
Tunisia8%
Draw7%
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters942
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters942
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Netherlands74%
Tunisia14%
Draw12%
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters942
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters942
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: NetherlandsConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 85%-1pp
Result: Netherlands · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 69%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: NetherlandsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 74%+9pp
Result: Netherlands · 0.10
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 37%Crowd 55%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.19
Who leads at half-time0.10
Will both teams score0.40
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters · came true

A Netherlands-controlled match with goals at both ends. The crowd's most vivid vision, a high-scoring Dutch win with Tunisia leaving their mark.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Netherlands dominant and clinical, goals flowing but Tunisia shut out. A one-sided goal-fest with the Dutch in command from the first whistle.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Netherlands in control throughout but the game stays tight and low-scoring, a narrow Dutch win with Tunisia kept scoreless and chances at a premium.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?No
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 942 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
130%281 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
225%234 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
310%93 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
47%63 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
53%28 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
63%27 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.7×
73%24 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
82%22 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
92%18 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
102%16 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
8.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (942 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4281 · 30%
3 / 4357 · 38%
2 / 4198 · 21%
1 / 475 · 8%
0 / 431 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=942). Average 2.83 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.