The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Tunisia1
Netherlands3
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
55%Crowd
37%Market
+18Divergence

+18 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd above market on Both Teams Score. The widest gap, and it aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap37%55% Yes+18
2Who leads at half-time?65%74% Netherlands+9
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?66%69% Yes+3
4Who wins this match?86%85% Netherlands-1
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedTunisia 1–3 Netherlands — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters942World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Netherlands85%
Tunisia8%
Draw7%
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters942
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters942
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Netherlands74%
Tunisia14%
Draw12%
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters942
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters942
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: NetherlandsConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 85%-1pp
Result: Netherlands · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 69%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: NetherlandsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 74%+9pp
Result: Netherlands · 0.10
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 37%Crowd 55%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.19
Who leads at half-time0.10
Will both teams score0.40
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters · came true

A Netherlands-controlled match with goals at both ends. The crowd's most vivid vision, a high-scoring Dutch win with Tunisia leaving their mark.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Netherlands dominant and clinical, goals flowing but Tunisia shut out. A one-sided goal-fest with the Dutch in command from the first whistle.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Netherlands in control throughout but the game stays tight and low-scoring, a narrow Dutch win with Tunisia kept scoreless and chances at a premium.

Who wins this match?Netherlands
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands
Will both teams score?No
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 942 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
130%281 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
225%234 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
310%93 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
47%63 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
53%28 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
63%27 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
6.7×
73%24 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
82%22 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
92%18 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
102%16 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
8.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (942 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4281 · 30%
3 / 4357 · 38%
2 / 4198 · 21%
1 / 475 · 8%
0 / 431 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=942). Average 2.83 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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