The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Spain2
Belgium1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
76%Crowd
53%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring. That gap defined this poll, and it aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap53%76% Yes+23
2Who leads at half-time?44%51% Spain wins 1st Half+7
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?47%52% No+5
4Who wins this match?74%72% Spain advances-2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedSpain 2–1 Belgium — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Spain advances72%
Belgium advances28%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes76%
No24%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Spain wins 1st Half51%
Tie 1st Half28%
Belgium wins 1st Half21%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Spain advancesConsensus
Mkt 74%Crowd 72%-2pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.16
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 76%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.12
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Spain wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 51%+7pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.82
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Yes · 0.54
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.16
Will both teams score in regulation time0.12
Who leads at half-time0.82
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.54
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

Spain in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open game, Spain ahead at the break, goals flowing past three in regulation.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Spain leads at half-time with both teams on the scoresheet, but the match stays tight enough that the final goal tally stops short of three.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A cagey first half ends level with both teams scoring, Spain eventually pulling through but the game never opening up enough for a third goal.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
120%343 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
217%283 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
38%135 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
46%109 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
56%108 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
66%103 voters
Belgium advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.8×
75%89 voters
Belgium advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
85%81 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
93%53 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
103%47 voters
Belgium advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4109 · 6%
3 / 4586 · 34%
2 / 4668 · 39%
1 / 4302 · 18%
0 / 446 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 2.24 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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