All resolved pollsResolved · 8 OCT 2026Upset
Dallas CowboysCrowd's pick · 80%16
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWon · Crowd had 20%24
The verdict

The crowd backed Dallas. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 16–24.

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Dallas, and it went the other way.

80%Crowd on Dallas
67%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Dallas win by 10 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 47.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters5World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Dallas Cowboys80%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✓20%
OutcomeTampa Bay Buccaneers
Voters5
ReadUpset
2Will Dallas win by 10 or more?
No ✓60%
Yes40%
OutcomeNo
Voters5
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.560%
Under 47.5 ✓40%
OutcomeUnder 47.5
Voters5
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Dallas ✓80%
Tie20%
Tampa Bay0%
OutcomeDallas
Voters5
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Dallas CowboysUpset
Mkt 80%Crowd 80%0pp
Result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1.28
: Deep
Will Dallas win by 10 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 60%+5pp
Result: No · 0.32
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 60%+9pp
Result: Under 47.5 · 0.72
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DallasConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 80%+13pp
Result: Dallas · 0.08
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.28
Will Dallas win by 10 or more0.32
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.72
Who leads at half-time0.08
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Dallas-controlled game from the front, winning without pulling away, in a high-scoring affair with the Cowboys leading at the break.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Dallas win by 10 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tight, high-scoring contest with neither side ahead at half-time, yet Dallas finding a way to win without dominating the margin.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Dallas win by 10 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

Dallas in full control from the first half, building a commanding lead in a free-scoring game and pulling clear by double digits.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Dallas win by 10 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 5 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Dallas win by 10 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
DallasCalled it!
0.9×
220%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
3.5×
320%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 47.5Got it wrong
DallasCalled it!
1.3×
420%1 voter
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 47.5Called it!
DallasCalled it!
2.0×
520%1 voter
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 47.5Called it!
DallasCalled it!
5.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (5 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.45How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call0.9×The most-backed combination drew 0.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 20%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 40%
1 / 42 · 40%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=5). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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