All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Upset
SassuoloWon · Crowd had 12%3
JuventusCrowd's pick · 78%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Juventus. Sassuolo won 3–2.

Sassuolo vs Juventus 638 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Juventus, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Juventus
58%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters638World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Juventus78%
Sassuolo ✓12%
Tie9%
OutcomeSassuolo
Voters638
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓55%
Under 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters638
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters638
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: JuventusUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 78%+20pp
Result: Sassuolo · 1.39
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 55%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 61%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.39
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.40
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a Juventus win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tighter, more controlled Juventus victory, with the game staying low-scoring and one side kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Juventus winning a close, cagey affair where both teams score but the game never opens up into a high-goal spectacle.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 638 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%212 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
220%126 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
313%84 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
412%78 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
55%31 voters
SassuoloCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
73%21 voters
SassuoloCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
83%16 voters
SassuoloCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
93%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (638 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 331 · 5%
2 / 3259 · 41%
1 / 3206 · 32%
0 / 3142 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=638). Average 1.28 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches