All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
EvertonWon · Crowd had 70%1
Ipswich TownCrowd had 14%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Everton won 1–0.

Everton vs Ipswich Town 596 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Everton, and the crowd had it.

70%Crowd on Everton
54%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters596World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Everton ✓70%
Tie16%
Ipswich Town14%
OutcomeEverton
Voters596
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters596
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters596
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EvertonConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 70%+16pp
Result: Everton · 0.14
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 63%+7pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.14
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.79
Average0.48
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Everton winning an open, end-to-end contest with chances at both ends and the net bulging more than twice.

Match resultEverton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters · came true

A tight, controlled Everton victory. Few goals, one team shut out, the result settled without a flurry of chances.

Match resultEverton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Everton edging it in a cagey affair, both sides finding the net but the match staying narrow and low on goals overall.

Match resultEverton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 596 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
130%177 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
217%99 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
314%83 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
410%57 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
57%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
65%30 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
74%26 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
84%22 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
94%21 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
103%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (596 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 399 · 17%
2 / 3187 · 31%
1 / 3261 · 44%
0 / 349 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=596). Average 1.56 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.