All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Atlanta FalconsCrowd had 33%23
Chicago BearsWon · Crowd had 67%31
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Chicago Bears won 23–31.

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 37 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on No
63%Market price
+37Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
Chicago win by 4 or moreSurprise
there be more than 49.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario67%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Chicago Bears ✓67%
Atlanta Falcons33%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters3
ReadConsensus
2Will Chicago win by 4 or more?
No100%
Yes ✓0%
OutcomeYes
Voters3
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 49.5 points?
Under 49.567%
Over 49.5 ✓33%
OutcomeOver 49.5
Voters3
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago ✓67%
Atlanta33%
Tie0%
OutcomeChicago
Voters3
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Chicago BearsConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.22
: Deep
Will Chicago win by 4 or more: NoUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 100%+37pp
Result: Yes · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 49.5 points: Under 49.5Market
Mkt 45%Crowd 67%+22pp
Result: Over 49.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ChicagoCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 67%+22pp
Result: Chicago · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Chicago win by 4 or more2.00
Will there be more than 49.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.83
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 67% of voters

A Bears win built on control rather than firepower: Chicago leads at the break, closes it out, but keeps the scoring tight and never pulls away by a commanding margin.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Under 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A Falcons-led, high-tempo contest: Atlanta in front at half in an open, free-scoring game, with Chicago unable to build the kind of lead that would make the margin question

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Chicago win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta
100% of voters backed the top 2 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Chicago win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 49.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
167%2 voters
Chicago BearsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 49.5Got it wrong
ChicagoCalled it!
2.2×
233%1 voter
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 49.5Called it!
AtlantaGot it wrong
9.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 2 of 2 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.67How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 67%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 1.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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