All resolved pollsResolved · 11 SEPT 2026Upset
NecaxaCrowd's pick · 43%0
PueblaWon · Crowd had 34%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Puebla won 0–1.

Necaxa vs Puebla 631 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
44%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters631World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Necaxa43%
Puebla ✓34%
Tie23%
OutcomePuebla
Voters631
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓56%
Over 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters631
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes60%
No ✓40%
OutcomeNo
Voters631
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NecaxaUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 43%-5pp
Result: Puebla · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 56%+12pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 60%+1pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.67
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.72
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A lively home win with an open, end-to-end game and both sides finding the net. The crowd's most-backed vision, clustering well above what chance alone would produce.

Match resultNecaxa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Puebla taking the points in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest where neither defence held firm. A minority vision, but still pulling more voters than independence would

Match resultPuebla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters · came true

A tight, low-event Puebla win with only one side scoring. Compact, controlled, decided by a single moment. A disciplined away-win scenario with notable internal coherence.

Match resultPuebla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 631 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
118%112 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
211%70 voters
PueblaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
311%67 voters
PueblaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
410%65 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
510%64 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
610%62 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
78%50 voters
PueblaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
87%46 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
95%33 voters
NecaxaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
104%25 voters
PueblaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (631 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 367 · 11%
2 / 3185 · 29%
1 / 3247 · 39%
0 / 3132 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=631). Average 1.3 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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