All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Necaxa
Puebla
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
56%Crowd
44%Market
+12Divergence

+12 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on Under 2.5 goals, the widest gap in the poll.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Biggest gap44%56% Under 2.5 goals+12
2Match result48%43% Necaxa-5
3Will both teams score?59%60% Yes+1
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters631World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Necaxa43%
Puebla34%
Tie23%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals56%
Over 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
3Will both teams score?
Yes60%
No40%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters631
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Necaxa
Mkt 48%Crowd 43%-5pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
Mkt 44%Crowd 56%+12pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 59%Crowd 60%+1pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A lively, open contest where Necaxa take the points in a game both sides contribute to, with goals flowing freely at both ends.

Match resultNecaxa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Puebla claim the win in an attacking, end-to-end affair where neither side keeps a clean sheet and the goals tally runs high.

Match resultPuebla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Puebla grind out a tight, low-scoring result, keeping Necaxa off the board in a compact, defensively shaped contest.

Match resultPuebla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 631 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
118%112 voters
NecaxaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.6×
211%70 voters
PueblaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
311%67 voters
PueblaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
410%65 voters
NecaxaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
510%64 voters
NecaxaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.1×
610%62 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
78%50 voters
PueblaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
87%46 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
95%33 voters
NecaxaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.7×
104%25 voters
PueblaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (631 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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