All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
60%Crowd
3%Market
+57Divergence

+57 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd piles into halftime Tie at a fraction of the market's implied probability.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap3%60% Tie+57
2Who wins?29%80% Indianapolis Colts+51
3Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?52%80% No+28
4Will there be more than 41.5 points?51%60% Over 41.5+9
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters5World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Indianapolis Colts80%
Minnesota Vikings20%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters5
2Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?
No80%
Yes20%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters5
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.560%
Under 41.540%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters5
4Who leads at half-time?
Tie60%
Indianapolis40%
Minnesota0%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters5
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Indianapolis Colts
Mkt 29%Crowd 80%+51pp
: Thin
Will Minnesota win by 7 or more: No
Mkt 52%Crowd 80%+28pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5
Mkt 51%Crowd 60%+9pp
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: Tie
Mkt 3%Crowd 60%+57pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

The crowd pictures the Colts ahead at the break in a free-scoring game, with Minnesota falling well short of a dominant margin.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tight, low-scoring affair with the Colts controlling the first half and Minnesota unable to build the kind of lead the market expects.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

The crowd sees a grinding, low-total game locked level at the half, before the Colts pull clear without Minnesota threatening a blowout.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 5 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Minnesota win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsPending
NoPending
Over 41.5Pending
IndianapolisPending
1.3×
220%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsPending
NoPending
Under 41.5Pending
IndianapolisPending
2.0×
320%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsPending
NoPending
Under 41.5Pending
TiePending
1.3×
420%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsPending
YesPending
Over 41.5Pending
TiePending
3.5×
520%1 voter
Minnesota VikingsPending
NoPending
Over 41.5Pending
TiePending
3.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (5 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.48How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches