All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SerbiaCrowd had 16%1
NetherlandsWon · Crowd had 75%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Netherlands won 1–2.

Serbia vs Netherlands 604 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

64%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters604World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Netherlands ✓75%
Serbia16%
Tie9%
OutcomeNetherlands
Voters604
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓62%
Under 2.5 goals38%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters604
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters604
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NetherlandsConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 75%+11pp
Result: Netherlands · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 62%+11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.29
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 64%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.29
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters · came true

Netherlands take the win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely past the midpoint threshold.

Match resultNetherlands
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Netherlands win comfortably and the goals pile up, but Serbia are kept out entirely, making it a one-sided attacking display.

Match resultNetherlands
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Netherlands grind out a tight, low-scoring victory, keeping Serbia scoreless in a controlled and defensively disciplined performance.

Match resultNetherlands
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 604 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%218 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%79 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
313%77 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
413%76 voters
NetherlandsCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
57%42 voters
SerbiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
73%20 voters
SerbiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
83%18 voters
SerbiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
93%17 voters
SerbiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
102%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (604 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3218 · 36%
2 / 3207 · 34%
1 / 3144 · 24%
0 / 335 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=604). Average 2.01 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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