All resolved pollsResolved · 21 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 21 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 21 August?

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana: where do they close on Friday 21 August? 658 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Above, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Above
44%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed poll data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm…Crowd beat the market
Ethereum at Friday's…Crowd & market agreed
Solana at Friday's 5pm…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters658World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500?
Above ✓74%
Below26%
OutcomeAbove
Voters658
ReadCrowd
2Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890?
Above ✓61%
Below39%
OutcomeAbove
Voters658
ReadConsensus
3Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?
Above ✓60%
Below40%
OutcomeAbove
Voters658
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500: AboveCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 74%+30pp
Result: Above · 0.14
: Deep
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890: AboveConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 61%+4pp
Result: Above · 0.30
: Thin
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76: AboveConsensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 60%+10pp
Result: Above · 0.32
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,5000.14
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,8900.30
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $760.32
Average0.25
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters · came true

A clean risk-on sweep: the crowd envisioned all three assets clearing their thresholds together, a coordinated crypto lift that drew far more backing than chance alone would

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500?Above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890?Above
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Above
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Bitcoin and Ethereum hold their ground above the line while Solana slips below, a split where the two larger assets lead and the smaller one lags.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500?Above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890?Above
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Below
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Bitcoin and Solana both clear their marks while Ethereum falls short, a divergence where the middle asset breaks from the pack in the wrong direction.

Bitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500?Above
Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890?Below
Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?Above
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 658 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosBitcoin at Friday's 5pm New York close: $64,500 or above, or below $64,500?Ethereum at Friday's 5pm New York close: $1,890 or above, or below $1,890?Solana at Friday's 5pm New York close: $76 or above, or below $76?
137%246 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
1.4×
215%98 voters
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
313%83 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
0.7×
411%73 voters
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
2.7×
59%61 voters
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
0.8×
66%40 voters
BelowGot it wrong
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
1.0×
74%29 voters
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
BelowGot it wrong
0.7×
84%28 voters
BelowGot it wrong
AboveCalled it!
AboveCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (658 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3246 · 37%
2 / 3209 · 32%
1 / 3130 · 20%
0 / 373 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=658). Average 1.95 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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