All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
América2
CD Guadalajara2
The verdict

América 2–2 Guadalajara

America vs Guadalajara 606 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on America, and it went the other way.

54%Crowd on America
36%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters606World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
America54%
Guadalajara28%
Tie ✓18%
OutcomeTie
Voters606
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters606
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters606
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AmericaUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 54%+18pp
Result: Tie · 1.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 51%-2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 64%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

America control the derby, goals flow freely, and both sides find the net in an open, attacking contest that the crowd saw as the most natural outcome.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

America grind out a tight, disciplined win, keeping Guadalajara off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, defensively solid affair.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Guadalajara cause an upset in a lively, end-to-end derby where both sides score and the goals tally runs high.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 606 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%154 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%85 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
311%67 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
410%60 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
57%41 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
67%41 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
77%40 voters
GuadalajaraGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
85%29 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
94%27 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
104%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (606 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 326 · 4%
2 / 3275 · 45%
1 / 3179 · 30%
0 / 3126 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=606). Average 1.33 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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