All resolved pollsResolved · 24 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
JapanWon · Crowd had 47%3
UruguayCrowd had 44%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Japan won 3–1.

Japan vs Uruguay 457 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters457World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Japan ✓47%
Uruguay44%
Tie10%
OutcomeJapan
Voters457
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters457
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters457
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: JapanConsensus
Mkt 48%Crowd 47%-1pp
Result: Japan · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 53%+11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 73%+25pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.48
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Japan win in a free-flowing game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultJapan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A sizeable cluster sees Uruguay turning the match, still in an open game where both teams contribute to a lively goal tally.

Match resultUruguay
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A smaller but present group pictures Japan edging a tighter contest, with both teams scoring but the game staying low on total goals.

Match resultJapan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 457 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%112 voters
JapanCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
219%85 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
312%54 voters
JapanCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
411%51 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
510%46 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
67%33 voters
JapanCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
75%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
84%17 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
93%15 voters
JapanCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
102%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (457 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3112 · 25%
2 / 3164 · 36%
1 / 3124 · 27%
0 / 357 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=457). Average 1.72 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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