The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Panama0
Croatia1
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
65%Crowd
44%Market
+21Divergence

+21 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on Croatia leading at half-time, though the half-time draw is what landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap44%65% Croatia+21
2Will both teams score?47%64% Yes+17
3Who wins this match?63%75% Croatia+12
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?49%60% Yes+11
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedPanama 0–1 Croatia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Croatia75%
Panama16%
Draw9%
OutcomeCroatia
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes60%
No40%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No36%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Croatia65%
Panama18%
Draw16%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CroatiaConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 75%+12pp
Result: Croatia · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 60%+11pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 64%+17pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CroatiaUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 65%+21pp
Result: Draw · 1.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.10
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.72
Will both teams score0.82
Who leads at half-time1.16
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

A Croatia-dominant, open contest: goals flowing at both ends, Croatia in front by the break and pulling clear for a comfortable win.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Croatia controlling from the front, scoring multiple times without reply, leading at half-time and keeping Panama off the scoresheet throughout.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, low-scoring affair with Croatia edging ahead early, holding the lead at the break, and shutting Panama out for a clean, narrow win.

Who wins this match?Croatia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Croatia
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
127%350 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CroatiaGot it wrong
1.5×
212%152 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
CroatiaGot it wrong
1.1×
311%140 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
CroatiaGot it wrong
1.6×
410%128 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
CroatiaGot it wrong
0.8×
57%93 voters
PanamaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
6.5×
64%45 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.0×
73%37 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.6×
83%35 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PanamaGot it wrong
0.5×
92%32 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
102%28 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
10.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 445 · 4%
3 / 4222 · 17%
2 / 4406 · 32%
1 / 4482 · 38%
0 / 4130 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.67 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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