All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ElversbergCrowd had 10%1
Bayern MunichWon · Crowd had 82%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Bayern Munich won 1–2.

SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich 666 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
81%Market price
-13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters666World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bayern Munich ✓82%
Elversberg10%
Tie8%
OutcomeBayern Munich
Voters666
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓68%
Under 2.5 goals32%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters666
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓54%
No46%
OutcomeYes
Voters666
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Bayern MunichConsensus
Mkt 83%Crowd 82%-1pp
Result: Bayern Munich · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 68%-13pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.20
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 54%-7pp
Result: Yes · 0.42
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.20
Will both teams score0.42
Average0.23
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters · came true

Bayern cruise to a comfortable win in an open, entertaining game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 28% of voters

Bayern win in a one-sided affair with multiple goals, but Elversberg are kept quiet and fail to get on the scoresheet at any point.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Bayern grind out a tight, low-key victory, keeping a clean sheet in a match that never opens up and stays short on goals.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 666 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
131%209 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
228%185 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
311%76 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
411%73 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
54%24 voters
ElversbergGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
63%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.3×
73%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
82%16 voters
ElversbergGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
92%16 voters
ElversbergGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
102%11 voters
ElversbergGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (666 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3209 · 31%
2 / 3300 · 45%
1 / 3132 · 20%
0 / 325 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=666). Average 2.04 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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