All resolved pollsResolved · 22 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
NorwayWon · Crowd had 57%3
SenegalCrowd had 27%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Norway won 3–2.

Norway vs. Senegal 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

77%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Norway57%
Senegal27%
Draw16%
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Who leads at half-time?
Norway45%
Draw27%
Senegal27%
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: NorwayConsensus
Mkt 41%Crowd 57%+16pp
Result: Norway · 0.28
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 61%+11pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: NorwayCrowd
Mkt 32%Crowd 45%+13pp
Result: Norway · 0.45
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 77%+22pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.28
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.30
Who leads at half-time0.45
Will both teams score0.11
Average0.29
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Norway-controlled match: Norway ahead at the break, goals at both ends, and a busy afternoon for both keepers.

Who wins this match?Norway
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Norway
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Senegal seize the initiative early, lead at half-time, and both sides trade goals in an open, end-to-end contest.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Norway in control throughout, leading at the break, but the match stays tight on goals with both sides finding the net in a compact game.

Who wins this match?Norway
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Norway
Will both teams score?Yes
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
122%301 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
211%150 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.3×
38%102 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
46%78 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
55%64 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
64%59 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
74%54 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
84%50 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.9×
94%48 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%45 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4301 · 22%
3 / 4319 · 24%
2 / 4422 · 32%
1 / 4208 · 16%
0 / 489 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.4 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.