The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Norway3
Senegal2
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
77%Crowd
55%Market
+22Divergence

+22 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring. And the match delivered it.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap55%77% Yes+22
2Who wins this match?41%57% Norway+16
3Who leads at half-time?32%45% Norway+13
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?50%61% Yes+11
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedNorway 3–2 Senegal — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Norway57%
Senegal27%
Draw16%
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Who leads at half-time?
Norway45%
Draw27%
Senegal27%
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: NorwayConsensus
Mkt 41%Crowd 57%+16pp
Result: Norway · 0.28
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 61%+11pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: NorwayCrowd
Mkt 32%Crowd 45%+13pp
Result: Norway · 0.45
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 77%+22pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.28
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.30
Who leads at half-time0.45
Will both teams score0.11
Average0.29
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Norway-controlled match: Norway ahead at the break, goals at both ends, and a busy afternoon for both keepers.

Who wins this match?Norway
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Norway
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Senegal seize the initiative early, lead at half-time, and both sides trade goals in an open, end-to-end contest.

Who wins this match?Senegal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Senegal
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Norway in control throughout, leading at the break, but the match stays tight on goals with both sides finding the net in a compact game.

Who wins this match?Norway
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Norway
Will both teams score?Yes
41% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
122%301 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
211%150 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.3×
38%102 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
46%78 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
55%64 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
64%59 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
74%54 voters
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
84%50 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.9×
94%48 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%45 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4301 · 22%
3 / 4319 · 24%
2 / 4422 · 32%
1 / 4208 · 16%
0 / 489 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.4 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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