All resolved pollsResolved · 14 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
ComoWon · Crowd had 36%2
Parma1
The verdict

The crowd backed Parma Calcio. Como won 2–1.

Como vs Parma 689 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 39 points above the market's price on Parma Calcio, and it went the other way.

46%Crowd on Parma Calcio
7%Market price
+39Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters689World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Parma Calcio46%
Como ✓36%
Tie17%
OutcomeComo
Voters689
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals53%
Over 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters689
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓60%
No40%
OutcomeYes
Voters689
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Parma CalcioMarket
Mkt 7%Crowd 46%+39pp
Result: Como · 0.65
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 53%+8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 60%+21pp
Result: Yes · 0.32
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.65
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score0.32
Average0.51
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

A lively away win for Parma in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultParma Calcio
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters · came true

Como take the points in a high-tempo, mutually punishing contest where both teams contribute to a busy scoreline.

Match resultComo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Parma grind out a tight, low-event win, keeping Como off the scoresheet in a controlled, disciplined performance.

Match resultParma Calcio
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 689 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
116%108 voters
Parma CalcioGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%103 voters
ComoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
313%90 voters
Parma CalcioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
411%74 voters
Parma CalcioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
59%59 voters
ComoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
68%54 voters
ComoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
77%48 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
87%46 voters
Parma CalcioGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
96%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
105%35 voters
ComoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (689 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3103 · 15%
2 / 3222 · 32%
1 / 3236 · 34%
0 / 3128 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=689). Average 1.44 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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