All resolved pollsResolved · 25 OCT 2026Upset
América1
PachucaWon · Crowd had 24%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Pachuca won 1–2.

América vs Pachuca 548 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
59%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters548World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
America58%
Pachuca ✓24%
Tie18%
OutcomePachuca
Voters548
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters548
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters548
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AmericaUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 58%-4pp
Result: Pachuca · 0.95
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 52%-7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 69%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.95
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

An open, end-to-end contest with América on top, goals flowing freely and both sides finding the net in a lively, attacking match.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

América grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Pachuca off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined defensive display.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A narrow, tense affair with América edging ahead, both sides netting once in a compact match that stays under the goals line.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 548 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%158 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
213%70 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
311%62 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
49%51 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
57%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
67%36 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
75%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
85%28 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
95%26 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
105%26 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (548 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 351 · 9%
2 / 3239 · 44%
1 / 3162 · 30%
0 / 396 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=548). Average 1.45 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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