All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
AustriaWon · Crowd had 74%3
KosovoCrowd had 12%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Austria won 3–1.

Austria vs Kosovo 604 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 6 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+6Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters604World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Austria ✓74%
Tie14%
Kosovo12%
OutcomeAustria
Voters604
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters604
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters604
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AustriaConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 74%+5pp
Result: Austria · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 52%-2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 56%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.39
Average0.32
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters · came true

Austria in control but Kosovo finding the net too. A high-tempo, open contest where both sides contribute to a busy scoreline.

Match resultAustria
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

Austria grind out a clean, tight win. Few goals, Kosovo shut out, the match settled by a single decisive margin.

Match resultAustria
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Austria win narrowly in a cagey affair. Kosovo nick a consolation but the game stays low-scoring throughout.

Match resultAustria
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
61% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 604 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%166 voters
AustriaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
220%120 voters
AustriaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
313%81 voters
AustriaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
413%77 voters
AustriaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
54%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
64%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
74%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%22 voters
KosovoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
93%20 voters
KosovoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
103%19 voters
KosovoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (604 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3166 · 27%
2 / 3202 · 33%
1 / 3190 · 31%
0 / 346 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=604). Average 1.81 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches