The matchResolvedCrowd beat the market
England1
Argentina2
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
82%Crowd
54%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, well below market on a half-time draw..

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap54%82% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?24%47% Argentina wins 1st Half+23
3Who wins this match?46%68% Argentina advances+22
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?42%52% Yes+10
How it landed:Crowd beat the marketEngland 1–2 Argentina — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances68%
England advances32%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes82%
No18%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half47%
Tie 1st Half30%
England wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 68%+22pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.20
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 52%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 82%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.06
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 47%+23pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.20
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.46
Will both teams score in regulation time0.06
Who leads at half-time0.77
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

Argentina in control from the first whistle, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring match with Argentina firmly ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, two-goal contest with both teams scoring, Argentina edging ahead early and holding that lead through a compact, low-volume first half.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

England seizing the initiative in a lively, end-to-end match, both teams on the scoresheet and England in front as the half-time whistle blew.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
121%304 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.5×
216%234 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
38%119 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.5×
48%115 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
56%93 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
66%89 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.0×
75%66 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.2×
84%59 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
93%48 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
103%42 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4115 · 8%
3 / 4514 · 36%
2 / 4570 · 39%
1 / 4218 · 15%
0 / 430 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.32 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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