All resolved pollsResolved · 15 JUL 2026Crowd beat the market
England1
Argentina2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Argentina won 1–2.

England vs Argentina 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

82%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances68%
England advances32%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes82%
No18%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half47%
Tie 1st Half30%
England wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 68%+22pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.20
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 52%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 82%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.06
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 47%+23pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.20
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.46
Will both teams score in regulation time0.06
Who leads at half-time0.77
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

Argentina in control from the first whistle, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring match with Argentina firmly ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, two-goal contest with both teams scoring, Argentina edging ahead early and holding that lead through a compact, low-volume first half.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

England seizing the initiative in a lively, end-to-end match, both teams on the scoresheet and England in front as the half-time whistle blew.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
121%304 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.5×
216%234 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
38%119 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.5×
48%115 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
56%93 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
66%89 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.0×
75%66 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.2×
84%59 voters
England advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
93%48 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
103%42 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4115 · 8%
3 / 4514 · 36%
2 / 4570 · 39%
1 / 4218 · 15%
0 / 430 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.32 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.