All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
AtlanteCrowd's pick · 47%0
PachucaWon · Crowd had 35%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Atlante. Pachuca won 0–3.

Atlante vs Pachuca 623 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Atlante, and it went the other way.

47%Crowd on Atlante
31%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters623World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atlante47%
Pachuca ✓35%
Tie18%
OutcomePachuca
Voters623
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters623
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters623
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AtlanteMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 47%+16pp
Result: Pachuca · 0.68
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 61%+3pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.68
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.74
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

The crowd's most popular vision: Atlante winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring home victory.

Match resultAtlante
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, disciplined Atlante win with few goals and only one side scoring, a compact and controlled home performance keeping Pachuca out.

Match resultAtlante
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A free-scoring Pachuca victory in a lively, open game where both teams contributed goals across a high-tempo away win.

Match resultPachuca
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 623 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
117%108 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%90 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
313%83 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
411%66 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
59%58 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
68%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
78%50 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
85%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
95%29 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
104%27 voters
PachucaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (623 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 327 · 4%
2 / 3180 · 29%
1 / 3300 · 48%
0 / 3116 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=623). Average 1.19 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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