All resolved pollsResolved · 28 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SwedenWon · Crowd had 57%3
PolandCrowd had 25%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Sweden won 3–1.

Sweden vs Poland 609 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
57%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters609World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sweden ✓57%
Poland25%
Tie18%
OutcomeSweden
Voters609
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters609
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters609
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SwedenConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: Sweden · 0.28
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 70%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.28
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.33
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Swedish win with both sides finding the net, an open, attacking contest where Sweden pull clear but Poland leave their mark.

Match resultSweden
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Sweden grind out a tight, low-key victory, keeping Poland off the scoresheet in a controlled, defensively solid performance.

Match resultSweden
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Swedish win with both teams scoring, just enough goals to share around but the game never truly opening up into a free-flowing affair.

Match resultSweden
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 609 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%163 voters
SwedenCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%84 voters
SwedenCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
312%76 voters
SwedenCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
411%64 voters
PolandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
59%52 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
67%43 voters
PolandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
76%37 voters
PolandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
85%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%26 voters
SwedenCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
104%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (609 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3163 · 27%
2 / 3194 · 32%
1 / 3191 · 31%
0 / 361 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=609). Average 1.75 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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