All resolved pollsResolved · 11 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Rennes1
MarseilleCrowd had 65%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Marseille. Rennes won 1–0.

Stade Rennais vs Marseille 632 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 35 points above the market's price on Marseille, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Marseille
30%Market price
+35Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters632World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Marseille65%
Stade Rennais ✓20%
Tie16%
OutcomeStade Rennais
Voters632
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓54%
Over 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters632
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes60%
No ✓40%
OutcomeNo
Voters632
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MarseilleMarket
Mkt 30%Crowd 65%+35pp
Result: Stade Rennais · 1.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 54%+16pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 64%Crowd 60%-4pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.72
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A confident, open-game vision: Marseille winning in a free-scoring affair with both sides finding the net in a match that delivers on entertainment.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A tight, controlled Marseille victory where they keep Rennais off the scoresheet and the game stays compact and low on goals.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Marseille edging it in a close, scrappy contest where both sides score but the game never opens up into a high-scoring affair.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 632 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%161 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
218%113 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
314%86 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
48%48 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
56%41 voters
Stade RennaisCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
66%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
76%38 voters
Stade RennaisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
86%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
95%32 voters
Stade RennaisCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
102%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (632 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3199 · 31%
1 / 3226 · 36%
0 / 3175 · 28%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=632). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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