All resolved pollsResolved · 1 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
GuineaWon · Crowd had 42%1
KenyaCrowd had 36%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Guinea won 1–0.

Guinea vs Kenya 597 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters597World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Guinea ✓42%
Kenya36%
Tie22%
OutcomeGuinea
Voters597
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓56%
Over 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters597
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters597
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GuineaCrowd
Mkt 36%Crowd 42%+6pp
Result: Guinea · 0.51
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 56%+6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 65%+15pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.51
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A high-scoring Guinea victory, with both sides finding the net in an open, attacking contest that ends with the home side on top.

Match resultGuinea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A lively upset for Kenya, goals flying in at both ends as the visitors outgun Guinea in a free-scoring away win.

Match resultKenya
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight Guinea win, both teams contributing a goal each in a low-key but competitive match that stays close throughout.

Match resultGuinea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 597 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
117%101 voters
GuineaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
214%83 voters
KenyaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
311%67 voters
GuineaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
411%64 voters
KenyaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
510%58 voters
GuineaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
69%52 voters
KenyaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
78%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
88%46 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
95%27 voters
GuineaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
104%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (597 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 358 · 10%
2 / 3192 · 32%
1 / 3240 · 40%
0 / 3107 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=597). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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