All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Arizona CardinalsCrowd's pick · 50%7
Seattle SeahawksWon · Crowd had 50%31
The verdict

The crowd backed Arizona Cardinals. Seattle Seahawks won 7–31.

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks 549 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Arizona Cardinals, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Arizona Cardinals
35%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsMarket beat the crowd
Seattle win by 5 or moreSurprise
there be more than 41.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Arizona Cardinals50%
Seattle Seahawks ✓50%
OutcomeSeattle Seahawks
Voters549
ReadMarket
2Will Seattle win by 5 or more?
Arizona Cardinals +4.552%
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 ✓48%
OutcomeSeattle Seahawks -4.5
Voters549
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Over 41.555%
Under 41.5 ✓45%
OutcomeUnder 41.5
Voters549
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Arizona Cardinals41%
Seattle Seahawks41%
Tie ✓18%
OutcomeTie
Voters549
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Arizona CardinalsMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 50%+15pp
Result: Seattle Seahawks · 0.50
: Deep
Will Seattle win by 5 or more: Arizona Cardinals +4.5Upset
Mkt 54%Crowd 52%-2pp
Result: Seattle Seahawks -4.5 · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Over 41.5Market
Mkt 50%Crowd 55%+5pp
Result: Under 41.5 · 0.61
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Arizona CardinalsUpset
Mkt 35%Crowd 41%+6pp
Result: Tie · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Seattle win by 5 or more0.54
Will there be more than 41.5 points0.61
Who leads at half-time1.01
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A Cardinals-controlled game: Arizona wins, keeps it close enough to cover, points flow freely, and the home side leads at the break.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Seattle win by 5 or more?Arizona Cardinals +4.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona Cardinals
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Seattle dominates from the front: a convincing margin, an open scoring game, and the Seahawks in command at halftime.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 5 or more?Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Over 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Seattle Seahawks
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Seattle wins decisively but in a grinding, low-scoring contest, leading at the half and keeping the total well in check.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Will Seattle win by 5 or more?Seattle Seahawks -4.5
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Seattle Seahawks
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Seattle win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%93 voters
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +4.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
2.9×
212%66 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle Seahawks -4.5Called it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
2.2×
310%53 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle Seahawks -4.5Called it!
Under 41.5Called it!
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
2.2×
48%44 voters
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +4.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
1.7×
55%25 voters
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
Arizona Cardinals +4.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
0.9×
64%24 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle Seahawks -4.5Called it!
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
0.8×
74%23 voters
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
Seattle Seahawks -4.5Called it!
Under 41.5Called it!
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
0.9×
83%18 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle Seahawks -4.5Called it!
Under 41.5Called it!
TieCalled it!
1.7×
93%18 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Arizona Cardinals +4.5Got it wrong
Over 41.5Got it wrong
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
0.6×
103%16 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Arizona Cardinals +4.5Got it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.9×The most-backed combination drew 2.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-17. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 418 · 3%
3 / 499 · 18%
2 / 4184 · 34%
1 / 4142 · 26%
0 / 4106 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=549). Average 1.6 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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