All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Los Angeles ChargersCrowd's pick · 55%14
Las Vegas RaidersWon · Crowd had 45%26
The verdict

The crowd backed Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas Raiders won 14–26.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders 547 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points below the market's price on Los Angeles Chargers, and it went the other way.

55%Crowd on Los Angeles Chargers
73%Market price
-18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Los Angeles win by 7 or…Surprise
there be more than 43.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters547World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Los Angeles Chargers55%
Las Vegas Raiders ✓45%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders
Voters547
ReadUpset
2Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?
Los Angeles Chargers -6.551%
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 ✓49%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders +6.5
Voters547
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 43.5 points?
Over 43.556%
Under 43.5 ✓44%
OutcomeUnder 43.5
Voters547
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas Raiders ✓40%
Los Angeles Chargers40%
Tie19%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders
Voters547
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Los Angeles ChargersUpset
Mkt 73%Crowd 55%-18pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders · 0.61
: Deep
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 · 0.52
: Deep
Will there be more than 43.5 points: Over 43.5Market
Mkt 50%Crowd 56%+6pp
Result: Under 43.5 · 0.63
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Las Vegas RaidersCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 40%+2pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders · 0.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.61
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more0.52
Will there be more than 43.5 points0.63
Who leads at half-time0.56
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters

A Chargers-controlled afternoon: LA leads at the break, pulls clear by a full score or more, and both offences combine to push the total past the line.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles Chargers
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

A Raiders upset with teeth: Las Vegas leads at half, keeps it close or wins outright, and a high-scoring game lifts the total above the mark.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Las Vegas Raiders +6.5
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas Raiders
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A Chargers win built on defence: LA dominates from the front, covers the spread, but both sides keep scoring in check and the total stays low.

Who wins?Los Angeles Chargers
Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles Chargers
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 547 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Los Angeles win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 43.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
112%66 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Got it wrong
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
1.9×
211%61 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5Called it!
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
2.3×
39%51 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Got it wrong
Under 43.5Called it!
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
1.9×
48%43 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5Called it!
Under 43.5Called it!
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
2.0×
55%30 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Got it wrong
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
0.9×
64%23 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5Called it!
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
0.7×
74%22 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Got it wrong
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
0.8×
84%21 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5Called it!
Under 43.5Called it!
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
1.0×
94%20 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5Called it!
Over 43.5Got it wrong
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
0.7×
103%19 voters
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5Got it wrong
Under 43.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (547 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 443 · 8%
3 / 4127 · 23%
2 / 4129 · 24%
1 / 4166 · 30%
0 / 482 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=547). Average 1.79 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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