All resolved pollsResolved · 10 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Bayern MunichWon · Crowd had 83%5
Bodø/Glimt0
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Bayern Munich won 5–0.

Bayern Munich vs Bodø/Glimt 586 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
85%Market price
-15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters586World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bayern Munich ✓83%
Tie9%
Bodoe/Glimt8%
OutcomeBayern Munich
Voters586
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓70%
Under 2.5 goals30%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters586
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes54%
No ✓46%
OutcomeNo
Voters586
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Bayern MunichConsensus
Mkt 88%Crowd 83%-5pp
Result: Bayern Munich · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 85%Crowd 70%-15pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.18
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 54%-5pp
Result: No · 0.58
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.18
Will both teams score0.58
Average0.27
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

A dominant Bayern win in an open, end-to-end game. Goals flowing freely with Bodø/Glimt finding the net at least once in a lively contest.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 27% of voters · came true

Bayern piling on goals but keeping a clean sheet. A one-sided, high-scoring shutout with Bodø/Glimt locked out completely.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A controlled, low-key Bayern victory. Efficient and disciplined, with few goals and Bodø/Glimt unable to trouble the scoreboard.

Match resultBayern Munich
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
74% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 586 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%202 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
227%161 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
312%68 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
410%58 voters
Bayern MunichCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
53%17 voters
Bodoe/GlimtGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
63%16 voters
Bodoe/GlimtGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.5×
73%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
82%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
92%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
101%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (586 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3161 · 27%
2 / 3284 · 48%
1 / 3120 · 20%
0 / 321 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=586). Average 2 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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