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Barcelona
Real Madrid
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
69%Crowd
81%Market
-12Divergence

-12 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well below the market on Over 2.5 goals. The clearest divergence in the poll.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Biggest gap81%69% Over 2.5 goals-12
2Will both teams score?75%84% Yes+9
3Match result58%52% Barcelona-6
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters551World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Barcelona52%
Real Madrid37%
Tie10%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters551
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals69%
Under 2.5 goals31%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters551
3Will both teams score?
Yes84%
No16%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters551
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Barcelona
Mkt 58%Crowd 52%-6pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 81%Crowd 69%-12pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 75%Crowd 84%+9pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Barcelona in control of an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and the goals flow freely.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 23% of voters

A sizeable minority pictures Real Madrid turning the tide in a high-tempo, back-and-forth affair where neither defence holds firm.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A quieter Barcelona victory where both teams score but the game stays tight and chances are scarce. A cagey Clásico with a narrow margin.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 551 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
135%193 voters
BarcelonaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
223%129 voters
Real MadridPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
310%57 voters
BarcelonaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
47%39 voters
Real MadridPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
54%24 voters
BarcelonaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.7×
64%23 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.6×
74%22 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
84%21 voters
Real MadridPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
2.1×
93%17 voters
Real MadridPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.8×
103%15 voters
BarcelonaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (551 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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