All resolved pollsResolved · 6 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
EnglandWon · Crowd had 85%3
Czech Republic0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. England won 3–0.

England vs Czechia 586 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

61%Crowd on Yes
41%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters586World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
England ✓85%
Czechia9%
Tie6%
OutcomeEngland
Voters586
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓62%
Under 2.5 goals38%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters586
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters586
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EnglandConsensus
Mkt 82%Crowd 85%+3pp
Result: England · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 62%+11pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.29
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 61%+20pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.03
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.29
Will both teams score0.74
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: England win in a free-scoring, end-to-end game with both sides finding the net in an open contest.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters · came true

A secondary cluster saw England winning and goals flowing, but all the scoring going one way in a clean, one-sided affair.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A tighter England win where Czechia still grabbed a foothold, keeping the scoreline modest but the contest two-way.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 586 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%211 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
219%111 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
315%90 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
415%87 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
53%19 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
63%15 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
72%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
82%11 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
92%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
102%9 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (586 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.08How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3111 · 19%
2 / 3310 · 53%
1 / 3136 · 23%
0 / 329 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=586). Average 1.86 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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