All resolved pollsResolved · 17 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
BesiktasWon · Crowd had 27%4
MarseilleCrowd's pick · 56%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Marseille. Besiktas won 4–1.

Besiktas vs Marseille 620 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Marseille, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Marseille
24%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters620World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Marseille56%
Besiktas ✓27%
Tie17%
OutcomeBesiktas
Voters620
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals54%
Over 2.5 goals ✓46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters620
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters620
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MarseilleMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 56%+32pp
Result: Besiktas · 0.88
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 54%+13pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.58
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 64%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.88
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.58
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

The crowd's most-held vision: Marseille winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring away victory.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tightly coordinated Marseille shutout, grinding out a low-scoring win and keeping Besiktas off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Marseille edging a cagey, close affair where both teams score but the goals are kept to a minimum in a narrow away win.

Match resultMarseille
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 620 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%125 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%93 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
314%89 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
412%72 voters
BesiktasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
58%48 voters
BesiktasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
67%42 voters
MarseilleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
76%40 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
85%32 voters
BesiktasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
103%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (620 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 372 · 12%
2 / 3209 · 34%
1 / 3216 · 35%
0 / 3123 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=620). Average 1.37 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches