All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Baltimore RavensWon · Crowd had 67%24
Tennessee TitansCrowd had 33%18
The verdict

The crowd backed Baltimore. Baltimore Ravens won 24–18.

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 41 points below the market's price on Baltimore, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Baltimore
91%Market price
-41Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
Baltimore win by 11 or…Surprise
there be more than 43.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Baltimore Ravens ✓67%
Tennessee Titans33%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens
Voters6
ReadConsensus
2Will Baltimore win by 11 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 43.5 points?
Over 43.550%
Under 43.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 43.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Baltimore ✓50%
Tie33%
Tennessee17%
OutcomeBaltimore
Voters6
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Baltimore RavensConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 67%-19pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens · 0.22
: Deep
Will Baltimore win by 11 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 43.5 points: Over 43.5Market
Mkt 46%Crowd 50%+4pp
Result: Under 43.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BaltimoreConsensus
Mkt 91%Crowd 50%-41pp
Result: Baltimore · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Baltimore win by 11 or more0.90
Will there be more than 43.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A dominant Ravens day: Baltimore controls the half, pulls clear by double digits, and a free-scoring game pushes the total comfortably past the line.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 11 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Tennessee makes it a grind, leads at the break, but Baltimore grinds back for a narrow win in a low-scoring, tightly contested affair.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 11 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Tennessee
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A locked half-time scoreline gives way to a Baltimore surge, the Ravens pulling clear by double digits while defences keep the total in check.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 11 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Baltimore win by 11 or more?Will there be more than 43.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 43.5Got it wrong
BaltimoreCalled it!
3.0×
217%1 voter
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 43.5Called it!
TennesseeGot it wrong
8.9×
317%1 voter
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 43.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
2.3×
417%1 voter
Tennessee TitansGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 43.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
9.3×
517%1 voter
Tennessee TitansGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 43.5Got it wrong
BaltimoreCalled it!
3.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.72How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.0×The most-backed combination drew 3.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 17%
2 / 44 · 67%
1 / 41 · 17%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.