All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
EvertonCrowd had 17%0
ChelseaWon · Crowd had 75%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Chelsea won 0–2.

Everton vs Chelsea 549 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Chelsea, and the crowd had it.

75%Crowd on Chelsea
45%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario44%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters549World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea ✓75%
Everton17%
Tie8%
OutcomeChelsea
Voters549
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals61%
Under 2.5 goals ✓39%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters549
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes75%
No ✓25%
OutcomeNo
Voters549
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ChelseaConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 75%+30pp
Result: Chelsea · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 61%+4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.74
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 75%+14pp
Result: No · 1.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.74
Will both teams score1.13
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 44% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Chelsea winning a free-flowing, open game with goals at both ends and plenty of them.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tighter Chelsea win, still with both sides finding the net but the game staying close and low on total goals.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters · came true

Chelsea grinding out a clean, controlled win, shutting Everton out and keeping the scoreline narrow and decisive.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 549 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
144%239 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%78 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
311%63 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
48%42 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
56%33 voters
ChelseaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
64%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.9×
74%22 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
83%18 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.0×
92%10 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
102%9 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (549 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 363 · 11%
2 / 3137 · 25%
1 / 3298 · 54%
0 / 351 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=549). Average 1.39 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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