All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Hull City
Brentford
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
43%Crowd
56%Market
-13Divergence

-13 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well below the market on Brentford, and well above it on Hull City.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap56%43% Brentford-13
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?44%53% Under 2.5 goals+9
3Will both teams score?58%66% Yes+8
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters541World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Brentford43%
Hull City37%
Tie21%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals53%
Over 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No34%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters541
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Brentford
Mkt 56%Crowd 43%-13pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
Mkt 44%Crowd 53%+9pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 58%Crowd 66%+8pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Brentford win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's single most coordinated vision.

Match resultBrentford
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Hull City causing an upset in a lively, high-tempo contest where both teams contribute to a multi-goal affair.

Match resultHull City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Brentford grinding out a tight, controlled win with goals at a premium and only one side finding the net.

Match resultBrentford
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 541 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%107 voters
BrentfordPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.5×
214%74 voters
Hull CityPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
311%60 voters
BrentfordPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
410%53 voters
Hull CityPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
59%51 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
69%49 voters
Hull CityPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
79%46 voters
BrentfordPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
85%29 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
94%24 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
104%23 voters
Hull CityPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (541 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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