The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Switzerland2
Canada1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
71%Crowd
54%Market
+17Divergence

+17 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, that read aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap54%71% Yes+17
2Who wins this match?29%45% Canada+16
3Who leads at half-time?24%38% Canada+14
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?47%56% Yes+9
How it landed:Market beat the crowdSwitzerland 2–1 Canada — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Canada45%
Switzerland38%
Draw17%
OutcomeSwitzerland
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Canada38%
Switzerland35%
Draw27%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CanadaMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 45%+16pp
Result: Switzerland · 0.62
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 56%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 71%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CanadaMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 38%+14pp
Result: Draw · 0.80
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.62
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.39
Will both teams score0.17
Who leads at half-time0.80
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

A Canada-driven, open game: the crowd pictured Canada in front at the break, both sides finding the net in a match spilling past three goals.

Who wins this match?Canada
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Canada
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Switzerland in control from the off, leading at half-time in a free-scoring, end-to-end contest where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Switzerland
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A tight, low-event Switzerland win: the crowd envisioned the Swiss ahead at the break and holding firm, keeping Canada off the board in a contained affair.

Who wins this match?Switzerland
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%188 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
2.4×
214%156 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
2.6×
36%66 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
3.4×
45%62 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
1.0×
55%58 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CanadaGot it wrong
2.3×
65%57 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.5×
75%53 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
1.1×
83%38 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
93%37 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
0.5×
103%35 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 2%
3 / 4294 · 26%
2 / 4468 · 41%
1 / 4283 · 25%
0 / 478 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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