All resolved pollsResolved · 24 JUN 2026Market beat the crowd
SwitzerlandWon · Crowd had 38%2
CanadaCrowd's pick · 45%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Switzerland won 2–1.

Switzerland vs. Canada 1.1k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Canada45%
Switzerland38%
Draw17%
OutcomeSwitzerland
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Canada38%
Switzerland35%
Draw27%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CanadaMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 45%+16pp
Result: Switzerland · 0.62
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 56%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 71%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CanadaMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 38%+14pp
Result: Draw · 0.80
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.62
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.39
Will both teams score0.17
Who leads at half-time0.80
Average0.49
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

A Canada-driven, open game: the crowd pictured Canada in front at the break, both sides finding the net in a match spilling past three goals.

Who wins this match?Canada
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Canada
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Switzerland in control from the off, leading at half-time in a free-scoring, end-to-end contest where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Switzerland
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A tight, low-event Switzerland win: the crowd envisioned the Swiss ahead at the break and holding firm, keeping Canada off the board in a contained affair.

Who wins this match?Switzerland
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%188 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
2.4×
214%156 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
2.6×
36%66 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
3.4×
45%62 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
1.0×
55%58 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CanadaGot it wrong
2.3×
65%57 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
3.5×
75%53 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
1.1×
83%38 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
93%37 voters
CanadaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
0.5×
103%35 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CanadaGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 424 · 2%
3 / 4294 · 26%
2 / 4468 · 41%
1 / 4283 · 25%
0 / 478 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.