The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Morocco4
Haiti2
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
73%Crowd
56%Market
+17Divergence

+17 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on Morocco leading at half-time, but the break ended level.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap56%73% Morocco+17
2Will both teams score?45%52% Yes+7
3Who wins this match?75%79% Morocco+4
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?59%62% Yes+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedMorocco 4–2 Haiti — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Morocco79%
Haiti12%
Draw10%
OutcomeMorocco
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Morocco73%
Draw15%
Haiti12%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: MoroccoConsensus
Mkt 75%Crowd 79%+4pp
Result: Morocco · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 62%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 52%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.46
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: MoroccoUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 73%+17pp
Result: Draw · 1.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Will both teams score0.46
Who leads at half-time1.27
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

A free-flowing Morocco win: goals at both ends, the scoreboard busy past three, and Morocco firmly in front before the whistle.

Who wins this match?Morocco
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Morocco
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

Morocco dominant and prolific, piling on goals while keeping Haiti off the scoresheet and controlling the game from the first half onward.

Who wins this match?Morocco
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Morocco
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A tight, controlled Morocco victory: few goals, Haiti shut out, and Morocco quietly ahead at the break and through to the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Morocco
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Morocco
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
127%271 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
1.4×
220%200 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
MoroccoGot it wrong
1.2×
315%156 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
MoroccoGot it wrong
1.5×
46%65 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
0.6×
53%32 voters
HaitiGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
HaitiGot it wrong
6.8×
63%31 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
11.2×
73%26 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.2×
82%20 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
6.7×
92%18 voters
MoroccoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.5×
102%18 voters
HaitiGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
HaitiGot it wrong
6.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 418 · 2%
3 / 4334 · 33%
2 / 4385 · 38%
1 / 4254 · 25%
0 / 420 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1k). Average 2.08 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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